ATP tennis predict — Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 11:15

Predicted probability

Rio Noguchi

Japan

39.35%

Alexandre Muller

France

60.65%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.43

Market probability

34.79% / 65.21%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandre Muller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1778 vs 1674), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1755 vs 1663) and a stronger serve (62.7% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1674.4 Elo 1777.7

1662.6 Elo (surface) 1755.2

8 Wins 95

7 Wins (surface) 52

4 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.908 Dominance ratio 1.108

216 Rank 132

27.8 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

65.5%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.1%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.3%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.6%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

64.8%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rio Noguchi Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.7%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rio Noguchi and Alexandre Muller have never played each other.

Rio Noguchi vs Alexandre Muller — Prediction