ATP tennis predict — Rinky Hijikata vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - round of 16 04:05

Predicted probability

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

74.43%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

25.57%

Average Odds

1.36 / 3.02

Market probability

68.95% / 31.05%

Why This Prediction?

Rinky Hijikata is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1833 vs 1616), a higher Elo rating (1887 vs 1824) and more wins on hard courts (71 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1886.9 Elo 1823.9

1833.3 Elo (surface) 1616.1

96 Wins 58

71 Wins (surface) 10

7 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.060 Dominance ratio 1.028

82 Rank 76

25.6 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rinky Hijikata

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rinky Hijikata Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

59.0%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.3%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rinky Hijikata Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

50.9%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.2%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.8%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

54.0%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rinky Hijikata 1 – 0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Hard Hangzhou · 2025-09-17

R32

Rinky Hijikata #111

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #43

7-6(2) 6-4

9 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 6

82 Service Points 114

50 First Serve In 64

37 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 29

6 Break Points Saved 13

9 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rinky Hijikata vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction