ATP tennis predict — Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 07:40

Predicted probability

Rigele Te

China

14.65%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

85.35%

Average Odds

5.08 / 1.15

Market probability

18.46% / 81.54%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1871 vs 1360), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1902 vs 1345) and more career match wins (82 vs 17).

Player Comparison

1360.1 Elo 1870.9

1344.8 Elo (surface) 1901.7

5 Wins 1

3 Wins (surface) 1

4 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.758 Dominance ratio 0.952

849 Rank 154

29.0 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rigele Te

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–1L · 90.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rigele Te Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

53.9%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.5%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.76

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.4%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.7%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rigele Te Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rigele Te 0 – 1 Ilia Simakin

Hard Wuxi CH · 2025-05-05

R32

Ilia Simakin #264

Rigele Te #494

7-5 3-3 RET

5 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

50 Service Points 55

28 First Serve In 34

24 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rigele Te vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction