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Ren Nakamura vs Hanyi Liu — Prediction

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · qualification - 1. round 10:35

Predicted probability

Ren Nakamura

Japan

11.36%

Hanyi Liu

China

88.64%

Average Odds

8.10  /  1.06

Market probability

11.57%  /  88.43%

Why This Prediction?

Hanyi Liu is the favorite because he has better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0), a higher Elo rating (1288 vs 1221) and more career match wins (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1220.8 Elo 1288.0
1260.6 Elo (surface) 1313.0
0 Wins (Challenger) 7
0 Wins (surface) 7
0 Last 15 form 5
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.500 Dominance ratio 0.803
1689 Rank 912
31.6 Age 25.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ren Nakamura

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Hanyi Liu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ren Nakamura Hanyi Liu

1st Serve In %

70.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%
68.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.8%
66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%
44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.6%
21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%
46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.15
0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ren Nakamura Hanyi Liu

Break Points Saved %

33.3%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.7%
55.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%
39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ren Nakamura 00 Hanyi Liu

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Hanyi Liu #912

Ren Nakamura #1689

6-0 6-1
0 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 0
48 Service Points 27
26 First Serve In 20
11 First Serve Won 18
8 Second Serve Won 6
3 Break Points Saved 0
9 Break Points Faced 0
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.1 Average Odds 8.1

Ren Nakamura — Last 10

L L L L L L L L L L

Hanyi Liu — Last 10

L W L W L W L W L L