ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Michael Mmoh

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

47.35%

Michael Mmoh

USA

52.65%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.78

Market probability

49.44% / 50.56%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1653.0 Elo 1666.0

1531.7 Elo (surface) 1715.8

57 Wins (Challenger) 207

47 Wins (surface) 183

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.126 Dominance ratio 1.046

165 Rank 181

20.1 Age 28.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Michael Mmoh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Michael Mmoh

1st Serve In %

60.7%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

47.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

54.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.48

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Michael Mmoh

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

69.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

34.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 0 – 0 Michael Mmoh

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Rei Sakamoto #165

Michael Mmoh #181

6-4 6-4

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Rei Sakamoto vs Michael Mmoh — Prediction