ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Luca Van Assche

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

51.62%

Luca Van Assche

France

48.38%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.60

Market probability

43.01% / 56.99%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1678.2 Elo 1761.4

1600.7 Elo (surface) 1583.5

61 Wins (Challenger) 135

51 Wins (surface) 65

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 3

1.028 Dominance ratio 0.781

165 Rank 54

20.2 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 0 – 3 Luca Van Assche

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-20

R16

Luca Van Assche #54

Rei Sakamoto #165

4-6 6-4 7-6

8 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 13

95 Service Points 107

57 First Serve In 67

44 First Serve Won 47

16 Second Serve Won 19

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Monza CH · 2026-04-06

R16

Luca Van Assche #94

Rei Sakamoto #165

6-3 7-5

2 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

68 Service Points 79

39 First Serve In 47

28 First Serve Won 31

16 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cap Cana CH · 2026-03-10

Q2

Luca Van Assche #105

Rei Sakamoto #159

7-6(4) 6-3

2 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 4

70 Service Points 89

42 First Serve In 46

30 First Serve Won 32

20 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Sassuolo CH · 2025-06-16

R16

Luca Van Assche #186

Rei Sakamoto #294

6-2 6-3

2 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 1

41 Service Points 53

24 First Serve In 32

19 First Serve Won 19

17 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rei Sakamoto vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto — Last 10

Luca Van Assche — Last 10