ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Jay Clarke

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 00:15

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

68.46%

Jay Clarke

Great Britain

31.54%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.73

Market probability

74.75% / 25.25%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1665 vs 1554), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1581 vs 1546) and a stronger serve (71.0% vs 61.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1664.7 Elo 1554.2

1580.7 Elo (surface) 1546.0

14 Wins 14

10 Wins (surface) 6

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.984 Dominance ratio 1.010

157 Rank 239

20.2 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Jay Clarke

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Jay Clarke

1st Serve In %

60.7%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Jay Clarke

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 0 – 0 Jay Clarke

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Rei Sakamoto #157

Jay Clarke #239

4-6 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 18

2 Double Faults 7

96 Service Points 89

56 First Serve In 48

41 First Serve Won 40

14 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

Rei Sakamoto vs Jay Clarke — Prediction