ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Edas Butvilas

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · QF 18:00

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

65.63%

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

34.37%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.04

Market probability

54.26% / 45.74%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1672 vs 1502), a stronger serve (64.6% vs 61.2% of service points won) and a stronger return game (39.9% vs 36.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1671.6 Elo 1502.5

1560.7 Elo (surface) 1584.1

58 Wins (Challenger) 81

48 Wins (surface) 60

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.126 Dominance ratio 0.939

165 Rank 268

20.1 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Edas Butvilas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Edas Butvilas

1st Serve In %

60.7%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Edas Butvilas

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

46.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 0 – 0 Edas Butvilas

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Edas Butvilas #268

Rei Sakamoto #165

7-6 3-6 7-5

7 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 3

100 Service Points 97

53 First Serve In 62

42 First Serve Won 45

23 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Rei Sakamoto vs Edas Butvilas — Prediction