ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

34.40%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

65.60%

Average Odds

3.18 / 1.35

Market probability

29.80% / 70.20%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1948 vs 1821), a higher Elo rating (2028 vs 1857) and a stronger return game (40.1% vs 32.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1856.7 Elo 2028.1

1820.6 Elo (surface) 1947.7

21 Wins 443

17 Wins (surface) 296

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 1.240

137 Rank 23

20.3 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

61.3%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.1%

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

67.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto and Andrey Rublev have never played each other.

Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction