ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

57.99%

Alexandre Muller

France

42.01%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.71

Market probability

65.62% / 34.38%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1678 vs 1638) and a stronger serve (67.3% vs 63.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1678.1 Elo 1638.2

1599.5 Elo (surface) 1620.5

15 Wins 91

11 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.954 Dominance ratio 1.127

157 Rank 138

20.2 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

60.7%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

75.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 1 – 1 Alexandre Muller

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Rei Sakamoto #157

Alexandre Muller #138

6-3 6-3

8 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 2

54 Service Points 58

38 First Serve In 33

30 First Serve Won 20

9 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

28 Winners 12

14 Unforced Errors 11

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Clay Bordeaux CH · 2026-05-12

R32

Rei Sakamoto #156

Alexandre Muller #105

6-4 3-6 6-3

16 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

96 Service Points 94

62 First Serve In 61

46 First Serve Won 44

16 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R128

Alexandre Muller #41

Rei Sakamoto #330

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

55 Service Points 77

43 First Serve In 59

36 First Serve Won 39

7 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 7