ATP tennis predict — Rei Sakamoto vs Aidan Mayo

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

50.56%

Aidan Mayo

USA

49.44%

Average Odds

1.02 / 1.02

Market probability

50.00% / 50.00%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1637.8 Elo 1583.9

1508.1 Elo (surface) 1579.6

56 Wins (Challenger) 84

46 Wins (surface) 71

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.146 Dominance ratio 0.925

165 Rank 625

20.1 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Aidan Mayo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Aidan Mayo

1st Serve In %

60.7%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.0%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.9%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.7%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.9%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

34.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

40.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rei Sakamoto Aidan Mayo

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.4%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.0%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rei Sakamoto 0 – 0 Aidan Mayo

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Rei Sakamoto #165

Aidan Mayo #625

7-6 7-5

10 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 3

80 Service Points 70

44 First Serve In 44

34 First Serve Won 34

22 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 1.0

Rei Sakamoto vs Aidan Mayo — Prediction