ATP tennis predict — Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · R16 14:30

Predicted probability

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

33.94%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

66.06%

Average Odds

2.15 / 1.63

Market probability

43.12% / 56.88%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1742 vs 1560), a higher Elo rating (1735 vs 1564) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1563.6 Elo 1735.1

1560.4 Elo (surface) 1742.4

165 Wins (Challenger) 68

115 Wins (surface) 43

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.050 Dominance ratio 0.913

237 Rank 319

29.3 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Raul Brancaccio

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raul Brancaccio Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raul Brancaccio Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.9%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Raul Brancaccio 0 – 1 Marvin Moeller

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-12

R16

Marvin Moeller #319

Raul Brancaccio #237

5-7 7-6 7-6

1 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

142 Service Points 146

90 First Serve In 86

53 First Serve Won 52

25 Second Serve Won 31

7 Break Points Saved 16

13 Break Points Faced 23

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Bad Waltersdorf CH · 2023-09-18

R16

Marvin Moeller #433

Raul Brancaccio #185

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 57

36 First Serve In 27

23 First Serve Won 14

16 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction