ATP tennis predict — Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego

ATP Clay Gstaad · R16

Predicted probability

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

67.11%

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

32.89%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.69

Market probability

64.82% / 35.18%

Why This Prediction?

Raphael Collignon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1782 vs 1656) and a higher Elo rating (1815 vs 1753).

Player Comparison

1814.8 Elo 1753.3

1782.1 Elo (surface) 1655.5

28 Wins 213

9 Wins (surface) 72

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.162 Dominance ratio 1.121

42 Rank 83

24.5 Age 31.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Raphael Collignon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Sonego

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raphael Collignon Lorenzo Sonego

1st Serve In %

59.4%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

59.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raphael Collignon Lorenzo Sonego

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.6%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.7%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

51.5%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Raphael Collignon 0 – 0 Lorenzo Sonego

Clay Gstaad · 2026-07-15

R16

Raphael Collignon #42

Lorenzo Sonego #83

7-6 7-6

4 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 2

77 Service Points 78

53 First Serve In 42

46 First Serve Won 30

13 Second Serve Won 25

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 2

25 Winners 27

21 Unforced Errors 35

1.5 Average Odds 2.7

Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego — Prediction