ATP tennis predict — Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

58.11%

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

41.89%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.40

Market probability

60.45% / 39.55%

Why This Prediction?

Raphael Collignon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1820 vs 1684), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1614 vs 1566) and a stronger return game (46.0% vs 36.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1820.3 Elo 1683.6

1614.4 Elo (surface) 1565.9

31 Wins 181

14 Wins (surface) 118

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.015 Dominance ratio 1.040

38 Rank 139

24.6 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Raphael Collignon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raphael Collignon Alexei Popyrin

1st Serve In %

59.4%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Raphael Collignon Alexei Popyrin

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.6%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.7%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

51.5%

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Raphael Collignon 1 – 0 Alexei Popyrin

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Alexei Popyrin #139

Raphael Collignon #38

6-4 6-3

7 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 3

65 Service Points 49

38 First Serve In 32

26 First Serve Won 27

16 Second Serve Won 11

6 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 0

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Grass Halle · 2026-06-16

1. round

Raphael Collignon #51

Alexei Popyrin #90

6-4 6-2

5 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 4

43 Service Points 53

25 First Serve In 33

16 First Serve Won 29

12 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 1

21 Winners 18

21 Unforced Errors 16

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin — Prediction