ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

76.73%

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Australia

23.27%

Average Odds

1.10 / 7.07

Market probability

86.54% / 13.46%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1913 vs 1751), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1750) and a stronger return game (39.0% vs 31.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1912.7 Elo 1750.9

1805.1 Elo (surface) 1750.0

45 Wins 151

24 Wins (surface) 118

11 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 1.009

13 Rank 417

20.0 Age 30.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Thanasi Kokkinakis

1st Serve In %

61.5%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

77.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Thanasi Kokkinakis

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

71.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

48.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar and Thanasi Kokkinakis have never played each other.

Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis — Prediction