ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

71.03%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

28.97%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.11

Market probability

55.09% / 44.91%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1760 vs 1669), a higher Elo rating (1896 vs 1840) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 58.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1895.9 Elo 1840.0

1760.0 Elo (surface) 1668.6

40 Wins 211

19 Wins (surface) 103

12 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.776

15 Rank 13

19.9 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

61.5%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 1 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-07

3. round

Rafael Jodar #15

Lorenzo Musetti #13

6-4 6-3

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

52 Service Points 68

38 First Serve In 41

27 First Serve Won 20

4 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 11

19 Winners 11

22 Unforced Errors 34

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Hard Washington · 2026-08-01

QF

Rafael Jodar #24

Lorenzo Musetti #15

1-6 6-1 6-4

5 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 6

74 Service Points 79

47 First Serve In 35

36 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 10

19 Winners 15

38 Unforced Errors 44

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction