ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

64.84%

Kei Nishikori

Japan

35.16%

Average Odds

1.17 / 5.03

Market probability

81.13% / 18.87%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1856 vs 1799), better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7) and a stronger return game (45.5% vs 37.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1856.2 Elo 1799.1

1681.7 Elo (surface) 1825.3

36 Wins 489

15 Wins (surface) 330

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.013 Dominance ratio 0.913

24 Rank 721

19.9 Age 36.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Kei Nishikori

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Kei Nishikori

1st Serve In %

61.5%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

61.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

53.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Kei Nishikori

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

55.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

48.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 0 – 0 Kei Nishikori

Hard Washington · 2026-07-30

R16

Rafael Jodar #24

Kei Nishikori #721

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 45

29 First Serve In 21

22 First Serve Won 15

18 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 3

14 Winners 8

26 Unforced Errors 31

1.2 Average Odds 5.0

Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori — Prediction