ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 17:00

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

76.20%

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

23.80%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.47

Market probability

72.59% / 27.41%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1836 vs 1642), a higher Elo rating (1938 vs 1802) and better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 10).

Player Comparison

1937.6 Elo 1801.5

1835.9 Elo (surface) 1641.7

45 Wins 132

24 Wins (surface) 65

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.103 Dominance ratio 1.075

11 Rank 10

19.9 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Flavio Cobolli

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

52.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Flavio Cobolli

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

32.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 0 – 0 Flavio Cobolli

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-19

R16

Flavio Cobolli #10

Rafael Jodar #11

4-6 7-6 6-3

7 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 3

102 Service Points 115

67 First Serve In 66

46 First Serve Won 44

16 Second Serve Won 27

3 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 8

26 Winners 33

48 Unforced Errors 51

3.5 Average Odds 1.3

Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli — Prediction