ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 01:10

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

78.32%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

21.68%

Average Odds

1.38 / 3.02

Market probability

68.64% / 31.36%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1916 vs 1743), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1801 vs 1749) and fewer double faults per game (0.12 vs 0.30).

Player Comparison

1915.8 Elo 1743.4

1801.2 Elo (surface) 1748.5

43 Wins 260

22 Wins (surface) 196

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.086 Dominance ratio 0.993

15 Rank 43

19.9 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

61.5%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 0 – 1 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Rafael Jodar #11

Denis Shapovalov #48

7-5 4-6 7-5

1 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 7

115 Service Points 108

75 First Serve In 56

50 First Serve Won 38

20 Second Serve Won 27

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 11

23 Winners 29

45 Unforced Errors 62

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Hard Dallas · 2026-02-09

R32

Denis Shapovalov #40

Rafael Jodar #124

6-1 6-2

7 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

44 Service Points 59

22 First Serve In 36

16 First Serve Won 17

15 Second Serve Won 7

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rafael Jodar vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction