ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

76.41%

Corentin Moutet

France

23.59%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.48

Market probability

72.65% / 27.35%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1887 vs 1691), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1741 vs 1710) and a stronger serve (66.6% vs 61.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1886.8 Elo 1691.3

1740.8 Elo (surface) 1709.7

39 Wins 162

18 Wins (surface) 79

12 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.176 Dominance ratio 0.923

15 Rank 59

19.9 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Corentin Moutet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Corentin Moutet

1st Serve In %

61.5%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Corentin Moutet

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

58.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 0 – 0 Corentin Moutet

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Rafael Jodar #15

Corentin Moutet #59

4-6 6-1 6-3

1 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 2

95 Service Points 71

52 First Serve In 44

32 First Serve Won 23

23 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 7

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet — Prediction