ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils

ATP Hard Montreal · QF 20:20

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

61.40%

Arthur Fils

France

38.60%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.23

Market probability

57.47% / 42.53%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1924 vs 1857), a stronger return game (39.0% vs 31.5% of return points won) and better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 11).

Player Comparison

1924.3 Elo 1857.2

1797.6 Elo (surface) 1857.4

42 Wins 123

21 Wins (surface) 70

12 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.036 Dominance ratio 0.804

15 Rank 24

19.9 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Arthur Fils

1st Serve In %

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Arthur Fils

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

47.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 1 – 1 Arthur Fils

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-11

QF

Rafael Jodar #15

Arthur Fils #24

7-6 6-3

3 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 76

51 First Serve In 44

37 First Serve Won 29

11 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 12

20 Winners 18

34 Unforced Errors 28

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Rafael Jodar #24

Arthur Fils #22

7-6 6-3

6 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 73

52 First Serve In 35

38 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 5

25 Winners 19

34 Unforced Errors 27

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Barcelona · 2026-04-13

SF

Arthur Fils #30

Rafael Jodar #55

3-6 6-3 6-2

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

82 Service Points 82

46 First Serve In 49

37 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 10

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils — Prediction