ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Bublik

ATP Hard Laver Cup · - 20:00

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

69.28%

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

30.72%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.44

Market probability

61.62% / 38.38%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2121 vs 2030), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1996 vs 1949) and a stronger return game (40.4% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2121.2 Elo 2029.7

1996.2 Elo (surface) 1949.3

45 Wins 255

24 Wins (surface) 152

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.130 Dominance ratio 1.306

14 Rank 21

20.0 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexander Bublik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Alexander Bublik

1st Serve In %

61.5%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

80.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

77.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.96

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Alexander Bublik

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

76.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar and Alexander Bublik have never played each other.

Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Bublik — Prediction