ATP tennis predict — Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Rafael Jodar

Spain

74.32%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

25.68%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.92

Market probability

67.44% / 32.56%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1926 vs 1800), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1819 vs 1763) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 30.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1925.7 Elo 1799.9

1818.6 Elo (surface) 1762.8

44 Wins 135

23 Wins (surface) 65

11 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.103 Dominance ratio 0.877

11 Rank 29

19.9 Age 29.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.4%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Rafael Jodar Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.5%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Rafael Jodar 1 – 1 Alejandro Tabilo

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-17

3. round

Rafael Jodar #11

Alejandro Tabilo #29

6-2 6-1

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Washington · 2026-08-02

SF

Rafael Jodar #24

Alejandro Tabilo #30

6-7 6-4 6-4

6 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 2

94 Service Points 99

53 First Serve In 61

43 First Serve Won 48

28 Second Serve Won 21

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

25 Winners 18

42 Unforced Errors 46

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R128

Alejandro Tabilo #40

Rafael Jodar #103

6-1 6-2

4 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

43 Service Points 43

30 First Serve In 26

26 First Serve Won 14

7 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo — Prediction