← Back to Predictions

Radu Mihai Papoe vs Luca Potenza — Prediction

Challenger Clay Catania challenger · R16 16:30

Predicted probability

Radu Mihai Papoe

Romania

71.41%

Luca Potenza

Italy

28.59%

Average Odds

1.28  /  3.42

Market probability

72.77%  /  27.23%

Why This Prediction?

Radu Mihai Papoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1713 vs 1507), a higher Elo rating (1706 vs 1592) and a stronger return game (50.3% vs 40.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1706.5 Elo 1591.7
1713.1 Elo (surface) 1507.1
28 Wins (Challenger) 59
25 Wins (surface) 24
11 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.141 Dominance ratio 0.962
326 Rank 528
24.1 Age 26.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Radu Mihai Papoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–3L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Radu Mihai Papoe Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

64.5%
61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.7%
68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%
54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

42.5%
30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.0%
55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.18
0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Radu Mihai Papoe Luca Potenza

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

42.0%
61.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%
45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Radu Mihai Papoe and Luca Potenza have never played each other.

Radu Mihai Papoe — Last 10

W L W W W W L W W W

Luca Potenza — Last 10

W L L W W L L L W W