ATP tennis predict — Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

69.59%

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

30.41%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.11

Market probability

55.82% / 44.18%

Why This Prediction?

Quinn Vandecasteele is the favorite because he has more career match wins (44 vs 1), a stronger return game (42.4% vs 34.2% of return points won) and better recent form (6 wins in his last 15 matches vs 1).

Player Comparison

1420.7 Elo 1453.3

1451.4 Elo (surface) 1444.8

44 Wins (Challenger) 1

37 Wins (surface) 1

6 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.149 Dominance ratio 1.058

461 Rank 966

23.9 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Quinn Vandecasteele Sebastian Gorzny

1st Serve In %

54.6%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.84

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.7%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Quinn Vandecasteele Sebastian Gorzny

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Quinn Vandecasteele 0 – 0 Sebastian Gorzny

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-19

qualification - 1. round

Sebastian Gorzny #955

Quinn Vandecasteele #458

6-3 7-6

5 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 4

80 Service Points 73

53 First Serve In 42

41 First Serve Won 33

11 Second Serve Won 23

7 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny — Prediction