ATP tennis predict — Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - round of 16 19:00

Predicted probability

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

85.21%

Bryce Nakashima

USA

14.79%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.79

Market probability

50.14% / 49.86%

Why This Prediction?

Quinn Vandecasteele is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1582 vs 1390), a higher Elo rating (1575 vs 1393) and more career match wins (49 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1575.2 Elo 1393.3

1581.8 Elo (surface) 1389.8

49 Wins (Challenger) 1

42 Wins (surface) 1

8 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.002 Dominance ratio 1.063

438 Rank 872

24.0 Age 22.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Bryce Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Quinn Vandecasteele Bryce Nakashima

1st Serve In %

54.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.22

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.84

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.7%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Quinn Vandecasteele Bryce Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Quinn Vandecasteele 0 – 0 Bryce Nakashima

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Bryce Nakashima #711

Quinn Vandecasteele #468

6-2 6-4

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 7

10 Break Points Saved 3

15 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.8

Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima — Prediction