ATP tennis predict — Pol Martin Tiffon vs Francisco Rocha

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Pol Martin Tiffon

Spain

84.29%

Francisco Rocha

Portugal

15.71%

Average Odds

1.14 / 4.69

Market probability

80.45% / 19.55%

Why This Prediction?

Pol Martin Tiffon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1368), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1626 vs 1390) and a stronger serve (63.4% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1663.9 Elo 1367.7

1626.4 Elo (surface) 1389.5

76 Wins (Challenger) 10

59 Wins (surface) 7

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.111 Dominance ratio 0.907

215 Rank 901

27.2 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pol Martin Tiffon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francisco Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pol Martin Tiffon Francisco Rocha

1st Serve In %

61.1%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.5%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.1%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.1%

51.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.6%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pol Martin Tiffon Francisco Rocha

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

41.7%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pol Martin Tiffon and Francisco Rocha have never played each other.

Pol Martin Tiffon vs Francisco Rocha — Prediction