ATP tennis predict — Pietro Fellin vs Miguel Tobon

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Pietro Fellin

Italy

44.48%

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

55.52%

Average Odds

2.38 / 1.50

Market probability

38.66% / 61.34%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (66.1% vs 61.6% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1418 vs 1367) and more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1508.3 Elo 1455.7

1367.4 Elo (surface) 1418.5

19 Wins (Challenger) 55

13 Wins (surface) 17

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.060 Dominance ratio 0.886

577 Rank -

25.1 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pietro Fellin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pietro Fellin Miguel Tobon

1st Serve In %

—

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.2%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pietro Fellin Miguel Tobon

Break Points Saved %

—

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.4%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pietro Fellin 0 – 0 Miguel Tobon

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Miguel Tobon #-

Pietro Fellin #577

6-2 6-1

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 2

45 Service Points 42

21 First Serve In 27

13 First Serve Won 23

8 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Pietro Fellin vs Miguel Tobon — Prediction