ATP tennis predict — Philip Sekulic vs Yuta Shimizu

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 1. round 05:10

Predicted probability

Philip Sekulic

Australia

41.50%

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

58.50%

Average Odds

2.24 / 1.60

Market probability

41.67% / 58.33%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1658 vs 1568), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1636 vs 1564) and fewer double faults per game (0.14 vs 0.21).

Player Comparison

1568.4 Elo 1658.2

1564.0 Elo (surface) 1636.3

69 Wins (Challenger) 132

69 Wins (surface) 131

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.179 Dominance ratio 1.102

348 Rank 399

23.0 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Philip Sekulic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-01.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Sekulic Yuta Shimizu

1st Serve In %

62.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.1%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Sekulic Yuta Shimizu

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

27.4%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.3%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Philip Sekulic 1 – 0 Yuta Shimizu

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Philip Sekulic #348

Yuta Shimizu #399

6-2 2-6 7-5

9 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 9

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

36 First Serve Won 36

12 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Yokkaichi CH · 2024-11-25

QF

Philip Sekulic #329

Yuta Shimizu #199

6-3 6-1

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

54 Service Points 42

38 First Serve In 23

26 First Serve Won 11

12 Second Serve Won 8

4 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Philip Sekulic vs Yuta Shimizu — Prediction