ATP tennis predict — Philip Sekulic vs Koki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · R16 06:45

Predicted probability

Philip Sekulic

Australia

51.70%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

48.30%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.59

Market probability

63.95% / 36.05%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1556.7 Elo 1604.6

1550.5 Elo (surface) 1601.0

68 Wins (Challenger) 24

68 Wins (surface) 24

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.179 Dominance ratio 1.056

353 Rank 483

23.0 Age 25.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Philip Sekulic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-01.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Sekulic Koki Matsuda

1st Serve In %

62.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.38

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.1%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Sekulic Koki Matsuda

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

27.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.3%

68.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.7%

26.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Philip Sekulic 0 – 0 Koki Matsuda

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-11

R16

Philip Sekulic #353

Koki Matsuda #483

6-2 4-6 7-5

4 Aces 11

6 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

40 First Serve Won 46

18 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Philip Sekulic vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction