ATP tennis predict — Philip Henning vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Philip Henning

RSA

16.55%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

83.45%

Average Odds

3.20 / 1.32

Market probability

29.20% / 70.80%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1693 vs 1347), more wins on clay courts (231 vs 1) and a stronger serve (63.6% vs 54.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1607.0 Elo 1655.1

1347.3 Elo (surface) 1693.0

25 Wins (Challenger) 245

1 Wins (surface) 231

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.742 Dominance ratio 1.072

294 Rank 298

25.7 Age 32.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Philip Henning

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Henning Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

67.8%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.6%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Henning Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.4%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Philip Henning 0 – 0 Thiago Monteiro

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Philip Henning #294

Thiago Monteiro #298

7-6 6-3

8 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 1

74 Service Points 58

47 First Serve In 42

33 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.2 Average Odds 1.3

Philip Henning vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction