ATP tennis predict — Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · qualification - round of 16 12:30

Predicted probability

Philip Henning

RSA

66.85%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

33.15%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.52

Market probability

73.49% / 26.51%

Why This Prediction?

Philip Henning is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1669 vs 1494), a higher Elo rating (1632 vs 1534) and more wins on hard courts (7 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1631.6 Elo 1533.7

1668.8 Elo (surface) 1493.6

28 Wins (Challenger) 29

25 Wins (surface) 19

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 1.017

266 Rank 365

25.9 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Philip Henning

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Henning Ivan Marrero Curbelo

1st Serve In %

67.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.4%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.26

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.9%

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Philip Henning Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

—

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

28.6%

50.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Philip Henning and Ivan Marrero Curbelo have never played each other.

Philip Henning vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo — Prediction