ATP tennis predict — Petr Nesterov vs Yanaki Milev

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

75.77%

Yanaki Milev

Bulgaria

24.23%

Average Odds

1.22 / 3.99

Market probability

76.58% / 23.42%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1620 vs 1366), a higher Elo rating (1618 vs 1398) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.24).

Player Comparison

1618.0 Elo 1397.9

1620.1 Elo (surface) 1366.1

37 Wins (Challenger) 15

28 Wins (surface) 14

10 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.757 Dominance ratio 0.998

301 Rank 866

23.5 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yanaki Milev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-08-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Yanaki Milev

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

63.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.7%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.3%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

47.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

55.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Yanaki Milev

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

26.8%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.4%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Petr Nesterov 1 – 0 Yanaki Milev

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Yanaki Milev #866

Petr Nesterov #301

7-6 3-6 6-4

3 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 4

95 Service Points 99

67 First Serve In 64

50 First Serve Won 42

12 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Clay Verona CH · 2024-07-22

Q2

Petr Nesterov #452

Yanaki Milev #456

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4

0 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 7

98 Service Points 129

63 First Serve In 79

47 First Serve Won 54

19 Second Serve Won 23

2 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Petr Nesterov vs Yanaki Milev — Prediction