ATP tennis predict — Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · R16 15:30

Predicted probability

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

79.49%

Sebastian Sorger

Austria

20.51%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

Petr Nesterov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1591 vs 1392), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1584 vs 1424) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1591.0 Elo 1392.1

1583.6 Elo (surface) 1423.9

34 Wins (Challenger) 5

25 Wins (surface) 5

10 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.793 Dominance ratio 0.855

364 Rank 479

23.4 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sebastian Sorger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Sebastian Sorger

1st Serve In %

59.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.34

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.3%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

58.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Sebastian Sorger

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

26.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.4%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Petr Nesterov 0 – 0 Sebastian Sorger

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Petr Nesterov #364

Sebastian Sorger #479

6-4 7-6

0 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 92

42 First Serve In 67

30 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 13

7 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Petr Nesterov vs Sebastian Sorger — Prediction