ATP tennis predict — Petr Nesterov vs Marko Topo

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - round of 16 12:00

Predicted probability

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

44.80%

Marko Topo

Germany

55.20%

Average Odds

1.93 / 1.79

Market probability

48.12% / 51.88%

Why This Prediction?

Marko Topo is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.2% vs 52.7% of service points won), a stronger return game (40.3% vs 34.9% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1650 vs 1641).

Player Comparison

1628.1 Elo 1604.1

1640.9 Elo (surface) 1650.3

38 Wins (Challenger) 75

10 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.737 Dominance ratio 1.126

301 Rank 327

23.6 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Marko Topo

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.7%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.3%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.6%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Petr Nesterov Marko Topo

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

26.8%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

47.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Petr Nesterov and Marko Topo have never played each other.

Petr Nesterov vs Marko Topo — Prediction