ATP tennis predict — Pedro Martinez vs Valerio Aboian

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · QF 14:00

Predicted probability

Pedro Martinez

Spain

61.95%

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

38.05%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.60

Market probability

79.58% / 20.42%

Why This Prediction?

Pedro Martinez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1737 vs 1631), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1727 vs 1636) and more wins on clay courts (88 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1737.1 Elo 1630.7

1726.8 Elo (surface) 1635.9

162 Wins (Challenger) 73

123 Wins (surface) 73

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.915 Dominance ratio 0.986

148 Rank 431

29.4 Age 24.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pedro Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pedro Martinez Valerio Aboian

1st Serve In %

67.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.40

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.8%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.8%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pedro Martinez Valerio Aboian

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

49.2%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez 0 – 0 Valerio Aboian

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Pedro Martinez #148

Valerio Aboian #431

6-1 6-2

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

25 First Serve Won 13

8 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Pedro Martinez vs Valerio Aboian — Prediction