ATP tennis predict — Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Pedro Martinez

Spain

30.36%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

69.64%

Average Odds

3.50 / 1.30

Market probability

27.08% / 72.92%

Why This Prediction?

Luciano Darderi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1835 vs 1647), a higher Elo rating (1767 vs 1610) and a better head-to-head record against Pedro Martinez (3-1).

Player Comparison

1610.3 Elo 1767.2

1647.2 Elo (surface) 1835.5

137 Wins 88

88 Wins (surface) 68

6 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 3

1.070 Dominance ratio 0.945

159 Rank 21

29.2 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pedro Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pedro Martinez Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

67.7%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.7%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.5%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.8%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.10

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pedro Martinez Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

49.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez 1 – 3 Luciano Darderi

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-23

R16

Luciano Darderi #21

Pedro Martinez #159

6-0 6-1

0 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

36 Service Points 33

23 First Serve In 14

10 First Serve Won 11

3 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 0

6 Winners 17

25 Unforced Errors 9

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Clay Buenos Aires · 2026-02-09

QF

Luciano Darderi #22

Pedro Martinez #94

7-5 6-1

9 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

64 Service Points 56

37 First Serve In 40

34 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R128

Luciano Darderi #61

Pedro Martinez #40

6-4 6-1

6 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

43 Service Points 41

31 First Serve In 22

30 First Serve Won 14

6 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Pedro Martinez #44

Luciano Darderi #45

6-3 4-1 RET

1 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

42 Service Points 57

32 First Serve In 36

23 First Serve Won 20

6 Second Serve Won 6

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Mallorca · 2024-06-24

R32

Luciano Darderi #37

Pedro Martinez #48

7-5 7-5

11 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 10

87 Service Points 83

50 First Serve In 59

38 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 10

10 Break Points Saved 9

12 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderi — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Pedro Martinez — Last 10

Luciano Darderi — Last 10