ATP tennis predict — Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Mykyta Mashtakov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Greece

15.35%

Mykyta Mashtakov

Ukraine

84.65%

Average Odds

4.94 / 1.15

Market probability

18.88% / 81.12%

Why This Prediction?

Mykyta Mashtakov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1551 vs 1310), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1545 vs 1408) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.40).

Player Comparison

1310.4 Elo 1551.2

1408.4 Elo (surface) 1544.6

3 Wins (Challenger) 8

1 Wins (surface) 8

2 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.639 Dominance ratio 0.947

1079 Rank 527

21.2 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Mykyta Mashtakov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavlos Tsitsipas Mykyta Mashtakov

1st Serve In %

64.6%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.3%

51.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

17.6%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

0.0%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.5%

36.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.14

0.00

Double Faults per Service Game

1.00

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.5%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavlos Tsitsipas Mykyta Mashtakov

Break Points Saved %

42.9%

46.2%

Break Points Converted %

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

41.8%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavlos Tsitsipas 0 – 0 Mykyta Mashtakov

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Mykyta Mashtakov #527

Pavlos Tsitsipas #1079

6-3 6-1

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

16 First Serve Won 23

13 Second Serve Won 8

9 Break Points Saved 1

14 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 4.9

Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Mykyta Mashtakov — Prediction