ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

39.87%

Tallon Griekspoor

Netherlands

60.13%

Average Odds

2.76 / 1.44

Market probability

34.29% / 65.71%

Why This Prediction?

Tallon Griekspoor is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1786), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1886 vs 1815) and a stronger serve (68.6% vs 61.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1785.9 Elo 1894.0

1814.8 Elo (surface) 1886.2

84 Wins 162

52 Wins (surface) 100

6 Last 15 form 5

3 Head-to-head wins 2

0.878 Dominance ratio 1.101

187 Rank 58

27.9 Age 30.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tallon Griekspoor

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Tallon Griekspoor

1st Serve In %

65.0%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

55.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

23.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Tallon Griekspoor

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 3 – 2 Tallon Griekspoor

Hard Stockholm · 2024-10-14

R32

Tallon Griekspoor #37

Pavel Kotov #59

6-4 6-3

8 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

47 Service Points 58

28 First Serve In 37

25 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Stockholm · 2023-10-16

QF

Pavel Kotov #109

Tallon Griekspoor #25

7-6(4) 6-2

3 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 4

74 Service Points 63

52 First Serve In 39

36 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 11

7 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

R128

Tallon Griekspoor #63

Pavel Kotov #117

6-3 7-6(3) 6-3

13 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 90

61 First Serve In 62

52 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Marrakech · 2022-04-04

R32

Pavel Kotov #172

Tallon Griekspoor #56

0-6 6-2 6-2

2 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 4

76 Service Points 78

44 First Serve In 43

27 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 18

0 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Francavilla Al Mare CH · 2019-04-22

R32

Pavel Kotov #302

Tallon Griekspoor #192

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4

8 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

113 Service Points 104

73 First Serve In 72

52 First Serve Won 44

21 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pavel Kotov vs Tallon Griekspoor — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov — Last 10

Tallon Griekspoor — Last 10