ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · QF 13:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

55.16%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

44.84%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.58

Market probability

63.86% / 36.14%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1802 vs 1671), a higher Elo rating (1760 vs 1684) and more wins on hard courts (49 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1760.3 Elo 1684.1

1801.7 Elo (surface) 1670.6

139 Wins (Challenger) 131

88 Wins (surface) 120

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 1.205

221 Rank 229

27.8 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

65.4%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 0 – 0 Rio Noguchi

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Pavel Kotov #221

Rio Noguchi #229

6-1 7-6

6 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 29

16 Second Serve Won 9

7 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Pavel Kotov vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction