ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · SF 12:30

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

58.45%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

41.55%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.86

Market probability

50.13% / 49.87%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1727), a stronger return game (42.6% vs 34.3% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (49 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1754.6 Elo 1735.7

1804.9 Elo (surface) 1726.8

137 Wins (Challenger) 53

86 Wins (surface) 44

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 1.005

250 Rank 442

27.8 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

65.4%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

54.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

81.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

18.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

40.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 0 – 0 Marat Sharipov

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-20

F

Marat Sharipov #232

Pavel Kotov #188

6-0 6-3

1 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 24

6 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Marat Sharipov #442

Pavel Kotov #250

6-3 7-5

4 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Pavel Kotov vs Marat Sharipov — Prediction