ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Jake Delaney

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

85.83%

Jake Delaney

Australia

14.17%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.59

Market probability

73.87% / 26.13%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1739 vs 1452), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1790 vs 1464) and more wins on hard courts (49 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1738.8 Elo 1451.9

1790.4 Elo (surface) 1464.4

135 Wins (Challenger) 30

84 Wins (surface) 30

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.955

250 Rank 365

27.8 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jake Delaney

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-09-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Jake Delaney

1st Serve In %

65.4%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

40.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

22.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Jake Delaney

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

32.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 0 – 0 Jake Delaney

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Pavel Kotov #250

Jake Delaney #365

7-6 7-6

6 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 40

20 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Pavel Kotov vs Jake Delaney — Prediction