ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Daniel Elahi Galan

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

28.23%

Daniel Elahi Galan

Colombia

71.77%

Average Odds

2.44 / 1.51

Market probability

38.23% / 61.77%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Elahi Galan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1671 vs 1466), a stronger return game (43.6% vs 42.9% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1671 vs 1612).

Player Comparison

1611.7 Elo 1671.2

1465.9 Elo (surface) 1671.3

134 Wins (Challenger) 227

51 Wins (surface) 187

9 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.097 Dominance ratio 1.270

243 Rank 290

27.7 Age 30.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Elahi Galan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Daniel Elahi Galan

1st Serve In %

65.4%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

55.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Daniel Elahi Galan

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

51.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

49.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

46.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 1 – 0 Daniel Elahi Galan

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Daniel Elahi Galan #290

Pavel Kotov #243

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 52

24 First Serve In 37

19 First Serve Won 31

15 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Chengdu · 2023-09-20

R32

Pavel Kotov #106

Daniel Elahi Galan #87

7-5 7-5

2 Aces 10

0 Double Faults 1

72 Service Points 78

40 First Serve In 48

30 First Serve Won 33

21 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pavel Kotov vs Daniel Elahi Galan — Prediction