ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Bernard Tomic

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · SF 13:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

68.58%

Bernard Tomic

Australia

31.42%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.09

Market probability

55.29% / 44.71%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1811 vs 1686), a stronger return game (42.6% vs 34.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1769 vs 1710).

Player Comparison

1769.1 Elo 1710.2

1810.6 Elo (surface) 1685.5

140 Wins (Challenger) 157

89 Wins (surface) 124

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.942

221 Rank 185

27.8 Age 33.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Bernard Tomic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Bernard Tomic

1st Serve In %

65.4%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

46.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.83

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Bernard Tomic

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

70.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 0 – 0 Bernard Tomic

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Pavel Kotov #221

Bernard Tomic #185

7-6 7-6

12 Aces 11

1 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

48 First Serve Won 46

13 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Pavel Kotov vs Bernard Tomic — Prediction