ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau

Challenger Hard Shanghai challenger · QF 10:30

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

52.40%

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

47.60%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.61

Market probability

41.93% / 58.07%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1742.5 Elo 1767.2

1794.1 Elo (surface) 1716.1

136 Wins (Challenger) 197

85 Wins (surface) 166

8 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.884

250 Rank 183

27.8 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexis Galarneau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Alexis Galarneau

1st Serve In %

65.4%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Alexis Galarneau

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

65.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 1 – 0 Alexis Galarneau

Hard Shanghai challenger · 2026-09-11

QF

Pavel Kotov #250

Alexis Galarneau #183

3-6 6-1 6-1

9 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

32 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

Q1

Pavel Kotov #102

Alexis Galarneau #159

4-6 6-2 6-1

11 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 74

44 First Serve In 48

33 First Serve Won 29

19 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau — Prediction