ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

46.21%

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

53.79%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.24

Market probability

58.18% / 41.82%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1774.3 Elo 1788.7

1802.5 Elo (surface) 1767.4

83 Wins 121

51 Wins (surface) 82

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.878 Dominance ratio 1.680

187 Rank 115

27.9 Age 30.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Aleksandar Vukic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Aleksandar Vukic

1st Serve In %

65.1%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

1.01

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

78.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Aleksandar Vukic

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

37.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 0 – 1 Aleksandar Vukic

Clay L'Aquila CH · 2019-08-19

R16

Aleksandar Vukic #274

Pavel Kotov #255

6-4 6-3

5 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 5

58 Service Points 70

39 First Serve In 43

26 First Serve Won 24

9 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic — Prediction