ATP tennis predict — Pavel Kotov vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Pavel Kotov

Russia

76.95%

Akira Santillan

Australia

23.05%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.71

Market probability

74.80% / 25.20%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1796 vs 1551), a higher Elo rating (1755 vs 1568) and more wins on hard courts (49 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1754.5 Elo 1568.5

1796.3 Elo (surface) 1551.1

138 Wins (Challenger) 163

87 Wins (surface) 115

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 1.002

221 Rank 319

27.8 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

65.4%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

71.2%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

83.8%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

66.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.8%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Pavel Kotov Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

48.6%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

52.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Pavel Kotov 1 – 0 Akira Santillan

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-16

R16

Pavel Kotov #221

Akira Santillan #319

6-4 7-6

4 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

34 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Hard Jinan CH · 2025-10-06

Q2

Pavel Kotov #485

Akira Santillan #456

6-4 7-6(8)

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 8

68 Service Points 86

42 First Serve In 53

30 First Serve Won 37

18 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Pavel Kotov vs Akira Santillan — Prediction