ATP tennis predict — Paul Inchauspe vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Paul Inchauspe

France

40.06%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

59.94%

Average Odds

1.94 / 1.79

Market probability

47.99% / 52.01%

Why This Prediction?

Yanki Erel is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (32 vs 5), more career match wins (40 vs 5) and a stronger return game (37.0% vs 31.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1580.6 Elo 1562.9

1616.0 Elo (surface) 1612.3

5 Wins (Challenger) 40

5 Wins (surface) 32

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.911 Dominance ratio 1.002

679 Rank 287

None Age 25.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Paul Inchauspe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Paul Inchauspe Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.1%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Paul Inchauspe Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

—

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.0%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Paul Inchauspe 0 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Paul Inchauspe #679

Yanki Erel #287

3-6 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

92 Service Points 78

54 First Serve In 47

44 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Paul Inchauspe vs Yanki Erel — Prediction