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Patrik Niklas Salminen vs Michael Vrbensky — Prediction

Challenger Clay Tampere challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Michael Vrbensky

Czech Republic

57.10%

Average Odds

4.52  /  1.17

Market probability

20.56%  /  79.44%

Why This Prediction?

Michael Vrbensky is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.18 vs 0.28), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1441 vs 1424) and a stronger return game (42.1% vs 27.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1432.8 Elo 1431.2
1423.8 Elo (surface) 1441.3
20 Wins (Challenger) 95
8 Wins (surface) 75
3 Last 15 form 4
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.113 Dominance ratio 0.974
1431 Rank 742
29.4 Age 26.6
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Patrik Niklas Salminen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Michael Vrbensky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrik Niklas Salminen Michael Vrbensky

1st Serve In %

56.6%
57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

85.5%
61.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%
49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

19.8%
34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%
61.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.30
0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.9%
56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.1%
69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%
51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%
33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.2%
53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.57
0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35
0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrik Niklas Salminen Michael Vrbensky

Break Points Saved %

77.8%
51.9%

Break Points Converted %

22.2%
51.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.0%
58.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%
45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Patrik Niklas Salminen 00 Michael Vrbensky

Clay Tampere challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - 1. round

Patrik Niklas Salminen #1431

Michael Vrbensky #742

7-6 6-7 6-4
9 Aces 11
5 Double Faults 11
129 Service Points 149
82 First Serve In 91
56 First Serve Won 63
26 Second Serve Won 26
10 Break Points Saved 12
12 Break Points Faced 15
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
4.5 Average Odds 1.2

Patrik Niklas Salminen — Last 10

W L L W L W W L L L

Michael Vrbensky — Last 10

L L L W L L L L L W