ATP tennis predict — Patrick Maloney vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Patrick Maloney

USA

41.70%

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

58.30%

Average Odds

2.18 / 1.61

Market probability

42.48% / 57.52%

Why This Prediction?

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1618 vs 1546), a higher Elo rating (1696 vs 1597) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 64.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1596.8 Elo 1696.2

1545.5 Elo (surface) 1618.5

37 Wins (Challenger) 46

26 Wins (surface) 11

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.867 Dominance ratio 1.044

- Rank 324

26.6 Age 29.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Patrick Maloney

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrick Maloney Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1st Serve In %

62.8%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.6%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.0%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.95

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.66

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Patrick Maloney Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Break Points Saved %

41.7%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

13.6%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

54.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Patrick Maloney 0 – 0 Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #324

Patrick Maloney #-

3-6 7-6 6-2

6 Aces 17

4 Double Faults 8

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

41 First Serve Won 47

17 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Patrick Maloney vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes — Prediction